Steps in
making a forecast.
1. Check the local current conditions:
A. Look outside and observe what is happening around you, and then answer the following questions:
Are there clouds in the sky? If yes how high, how much and what type are they?
What type of weather is there? Is it raining or snowing? What is the visibility?
What is the temperature? (Even if you don't have a thermometer you can estimate.) Is it cooler, warmer or about normal for this time of year?
What is the humidity like? Is it dry, or humid in between?
What is the approximate direction and speed of the wind?
If you have a barometer, what is the pressure?
B. Go online and check the
observation at
2. Check out what is happening around the county.
A. For the latest surface map click on the Surface Analysis NWS or the Surface Analysis With Radar. Note where the high and low are.
You can also check out the latest US Radar or US Radar NWS and Satellite picture.
Click on a Blank US Map that you can print out and use as a worksheet.
Draw in the current positions of the low pressure systems, high pressure systems, cold fronts and warm fronts on your blank map.
B. Now check out the latest wind velocity vectors at 300 mb (~30,000 ft). Look at the general flow across the country and especially over the surface low and high pressures that you will think affect our location. Note: Lows, Highs and Fronts tend to move at about 30% of the wind speed at 300 mb or about the length of the vector arrow in 3 hours (this is a very rough estimate).
Make an estimate of where
you think the Highs, Lows and fronts will be in 24 hours. Where is the weather now that will affect us
tomorrow (in what US state, part of
C. You can check out the NWS forecast of the movement of Lows, Highs and fronts for the next 24 - 48 hours at the following sites: 12 Hour Fcst 24 Hour Fcst 36 Hour Fcst 48 Hr Fcst
D. Make your final estimate of where the highs and lows will be and draw them on you map.
3. Now it is time to make your forecast and enter it into Forecast Central:
A. What are the temperature trends (is it colder, warmer, or normal and are we getting cooler or warmer than we are now)?
Enter Low Temperature Forecast:
Enter High Temperature forecast:
B. What type of weather do you expect here tomorrow (clear, rainy, snow and how much precipitation)?
Enter amount of rainfall or rainfall equivalent for snow:
Snow water equivalent (about 10' snow = 1" rain)
C. Give comments about your forecasts:
